A poll conducted by Management & Fit showed that there is a notorious parity between the Argentine President Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández, the Presidential candidate from the Peronist movement, headed by former President Cristina Kirchner. The results of the polls presented today to a group of private clients show an extreme polarization between the President and the candidate of Frente de Todos. It also coincides with other polls, such as the one conducted by Giacobbe & Asociados, published this Wednesday by LPO, and revealing a similar outcome.
The poll places Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner in first place with a 39.9% of the vote intention, but the Macri-Pichetto ticket is close enough, at 38.2%. Roberto Lavagna shows up far from them with a 6.9% and José Luis Espert with a 4.7%.
Juntos por el Cambio overpasses the Kirchner ticket when the question is about electoral fronts and not proper names. In such a case, the alliance between Macrists and radicals reaches 38.6% and the Frente de Todos remains a tenth below with a 38.5%.
In the fight for the Buenos Aires Province, Macri's candidate María Eugenia Vidal is ahead of Kirchner's former Ministry of Economy Axel Kicillof, by almost four points. The Governor is reaching 41.9 points, whereas the former Minister is at 38%. In this case, polarization is higher than in the Presidential race. Christian Castillo, from the Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores, appears in the third spot, with 2.7% and Eduardo "Bali" Bucca is lower, with 1.1%.
As for the City of Buenos Aires, the poll shows Horacio Rodríguez Larreta reaching nearly 50% of the voting intention, which places him as the next Mayor, without going through a second round. Matías Lammens, from the Frente de Todos, reaches 24.8%. The poll assures that Vidal is still highly valued after her tenure in Buenos Aires. She holds a 44.5% of approval in three and half years as the mayor of the province, whereas 50.2% disapproves.
These percentages drop when the question is whether the citizens approve or disapprove of how the President governing. In this case, 33.7% approve of his tenure, whereas 59.8% disapproves of it. In June, Management & Fit had already registered a slight improvement regarding Macri. Around those days, the candidacies had not been yet announced and the voting intention for Cambiemos rose from 29.8% in May, to 35.9% in June.
LPO anticipated another private poll, conducted by Giacobbe & Asociados, which showed an extremely even scenario in both national and local elections. It is a poll carried out during late June on 2500 people around the country. The sampling matches with the other consulting firms' numbers, which in the last weeks gave notice that the difference between Kirchner's candidate and the President was shortened and remained at a technical tie.
Giacobbe's poll shows a difference of three points between Alberto Fernández and Macri, both in the primaries and in the first round. In this last scenario, Fernández barely surpasses 40% and remains far from the safety of the 45% needed to avoid ballotage.
Jorge Giacobbe, Jr, head of the consulting firm, explained to LPO that in a second round, Fernández and Macri are tied in around 43 points, with over 10% still undecided. "It is a major evenness that does not allow to foresee anything", he said.
Another poll indicated that in Cordoba, one of the key states to win the Presidency, a 44.1% of the citizens said they would vote for Macri, whereas a 26.4% would do so for the Fernández-Macri ticket. The state, just like in 2015, is still a Macri stronghold and is adverse for Kirchnerism. The economic crisis and the drop in Macri's popularity everywhere in the country do not seem to have affected his image in said province, where the President is nearly 20 points ahead of Fernández, according to a poll to which LPO had access.
With almost 3 million voters, Cordoba is the third electoral district in the country and it represents nearly 10% of the national voter registration. It will be key in October's election where an extremely even scenario and a vote for vote count are foreseen. The third options seem far enough: Roberto Lavagna with 7%, José Luis Espert with 4.8% and Nicolás del Caño with a 1.5%. A 10% of voters is still undecided.
In the event of a hypothetical second round, Macri would sum a 53% of adherences versus a 30.8% of Kirchner's candidate. Nearly 10% would cast a blank vote and 6.4% does not know.
This a significant difference, hard to observe in other provinces, except for the City of Buenos Aires, but far from the numbers in the second round in 2015, when Macri achieved 71.5% in Cordoba, a difference of over 40 points which ended up being fundamental for his election. In the first round, Macri had overpassed 53%.
Regarding this, 62.7% of those who said that voted for him in 2015, have said that they would do it again, and nearly 20% have stated that they would not do it. In general, a 40.9% says they would never vote for Macri and Miguel Pichetto, which indicates that the roof of Juntos por el Cambio in Cordoba would reach around 60%, as it was explained to LPO by Cristian Buttié, head of the polling firm.
The roof for Kirchner is much lower. 61.1% would never vote for her ticket, and barely 33.5% have said that they would surely do. The Frente de Todos candidate would even lose a possible ballotage against Lavagna. That is why many Peronist leaders are claiming for adjustments in his campaign, especially in the central zone of the country.
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