Mexico's 6J
AMLO did well in the Elections, but the opposition managed to limit his power
Morena won eleven governorships, but the opposition alliance "Va por México" snatched the parliamentary majority to advance constitutional reforms.

Mexico's Morena party, which had risen to victory in 2018 thanks to the boost of AMLO's candidacy, snatched 10 governorships from the opposition and will thus control 16 states, or half of the country.

This is an unprecedented territorial advance for a ruling party in the midterm elections, an instance historically more akin to the opposition than to the ruling party, especially one worn down by an economic and social crisis caused by a pandemic with little precedent in history.

However, AMLO suffered an unexpected blow: not only did he lose 59 seats falling far short of the qualified majority needed to move forward with his "transformative" project and reform the Constitution, but according to provisional counts, Morena falls in several mayoralties of his main stronghold, Mexico City.

The other fact of the election is related with the success of the alliance of the traditional parties (PAN-PRI-PRD) that has as an alchemist the entrepreneur Claudio X. Gonzalez who is being criticized by the Mexican president's for the alleged funding of his NGO "Mexicanos contra la corrupción" from the U.S. government, leading AMLO to publicly question Biden.

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The strategy of unity against the government worked and outlines the National Autonomist Party (PAN) as the main space of the opposition alliance with the new leadership of Mauricio Kuri, the next governor of Querétaro, a key state for economic development and innovation in the country.

Mauricio Kuri, governor of Querétaro.



Another important state where AMLO planned to win for its economic relevance was Nueva León, but the state was in the hands of Samuel García, from the Movimiento Ciudadano, which already governed Jalisco. Morena, on the other hand, wins in Baja California, which is key because of its border location with the United States.

In relation to Congress, the ruling party has a simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies and will rule with its parliamentary allies. Now he would maintain the simple majority but it is far from qualified to advance in various reforms that were planned for the last stretch of the six-year term of government.

Morena will manage to continue controlling deputies thanks to its 197 seats and the 82 that adds to those of its partners -PT and the Green Party-, increasing the power of the opposition, based on a historic alliance between the PRI, PAN and PRD, which has obtained 40% more seats and is recovered - also partially - from the hit suffered in the 2018 elections.

The ruling party would have about 190 to 203 deputies, while its allies of the PT and Verde Ecologista would be capturing approximately 40 and 48 seats respectively.

In the case of the "Va por México" alliance, the positive results of the PAN stand out, with a bigger representativeness estimated, since the preliminary statistics of the INE show that up to 117 legislators would obtained against the PRI, which would not exceed 100 and 21 from the PRD.

With these figures, the opposition would be placing an achievement: to block -- initially -- the ability of the ruling party to pass constitutional reforms. It may not be the expected result, but it will work to initiate the political game in the Lower House, which they had been waiting for since 2018. For the government, it does not represent the total loss of power, since it obtained the simple majority with allies. A balance that is sometimes necessary for life in a democracy.

Morena and allies would need other political forces to consolidate their reform projects. The qualified majority required in the Legislature is 366 votes. Now, Morena would need at least 70 votes, and for now neither Movimiento Ciudadano nor other smaller parties can offer that. The negotiation will have to be carried out with "Va por México."

Alejando Moreno, leader of the PRI; Jesús Zambrano, leader of the PRD, and Claudio X. González

The main card for AMLO's succession in 2024, the head of government of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum, is a victim of the poor election of Morena in Mexico City, perhaps a product of the impact on society of the collapse of Line 12 of the capital's subway line.

and despite not being able to hegemonize the political system and to move forward more quickly with the reforms, AMLO was able to consolidate an important support for what remains of his administration with the warning on the opposition unit gaining muscle to dispute power in 2024.

On Monday, with election results on the table, Lopez Obrador will receive Vice President Kamala Harris to address the crisis at the border.


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